December 30, 2016
To Bet Or Not To Bet Early – That Is The Question
Here’s an interesting conundrum.
At Canterbury races on Saturday, in the 2YO race, we get to see the horse that cost the most to buy as a yearling in 2016.
He races as CHAUFFEUR and he looks the one to beat in the opening race.
He cost $1.4million and the goal, hope, dream, aspirations of Jadesky Racing who out laid that money to purchase him, was to win the money back and develop him into a stallion prospect.
Early days yet to say he will, but here’s where life gets interesting.
Especially for punters.
Chauffeur is on target for the $2million Magic Millions 2YO Classic over 1200m on 14 January.
He’s currently paying $17. He wins that and he pays off the purchase price and also assures himself a career at stud.
Before that race, there is Canterbury race. Now, if he wins on Saturday, he’s firstly assured of a start in the MM Classic, but more importantly, will firm up dramatically in the pre-post MM markets.
So the choice is down to two things. 1) Leave the $17 and watch him go around on Saturday.
If he fails, he’ll blow in the market, and or maybe doesn’t even head to the Gold Coast in January.
Or, 2) Take the $17 now in anticipation he will run up to his pedigree and price tag on Saturday.
Josh Parr will ride him on Saturday and Gerald Ryan trains him. His only start to date was a win at Rosehill over 1100m. He comfortably beat the boomed COORG that day with subsequent city winner FALCONIC back in 3rd.
That day he seemed reluctant to take the rails run, but when he did he accelerated like a superstar to win drawing clear.
More significantly he ran 33.19sec his last 600m – unheard of for a 2YO.
If he runs up to that form, he wins on Saturday, although the favourite will be the Chris Waller-trained FROM WITHIN, an unraced Not A Single Doubt youngster who has won two trials to date by huge margins.
Getting on early is always fraught with concern, but at $17 this looks a gamble worth taking.
On Saturday, I think he wins comfortably.
The Early Crow likes: 1. CHAUFFEUR, From Within 2, Invader 3.